Oil prices fell on Monday, October 19, 2026, after US President Donald Trump waived key sanctions and tariffs on Russia. Brent crude dropped $1.43, or 1.3%, to $108.43 a barrel in early Asian trade, according to Reuters. The dip is small. Brent had settled on Friday at its highest level since May 19. Traders now watch two things. One is how much Russian fuel reaches the market. The other is whether attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz keep squeezing supply. India imports most of its crude, so both answers will shape what Indians pay for fuel in the weeks ahead.
Key Points
- Brent crude fell to $108.43 and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $100.88 in early Asian trade on October 19, Reuters reported.
- Trump signed an executive order on Friday, October 16, waiving sanctions and tariffs on Russia under the Graham Act.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump will take up to 60 days to study the economic impact of the waiver.
- Brent briefly touched $110 on Friday for the first time since May, as attacks on ships near Hormuz grew.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the US move would hurt Ukraine.
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Trump Waives Russia Sanctions Under the Graham Act
The executive order came on Friday evening. It waives key sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act, a law Trump signed last month after lawmakers pushed him to pressure Moscow over its war in Ukraine. Angel One reported that the waiver arrived just days before some of the measures were due to take effect.
The decision followed an agreement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under it, Russia would export diesel to the United States. Markets read the deal as a sign that more Russian fuel could flow to buyers.
Rubio said the waiver is not final. He told reporters Trump would take up to 60 days to assess its economic impact, Business Today Malaysia reported. Zelenskiy warned that the US actions would harm Ukraine. Kyiv has not said what steps it plans in response.
Oil Prices Today: Where Brent and WTI Stand
Brent futures stood at $108.43 a barrel by 2340 GMT on Sunday, down 1.3%. WTI slipped 53 cents, or 0.52%, to $100.88. Later Monday reports showed Brent a little lower still, near $108, as the waiver news sank in.
Friday’s numbers show how high the market had climbed. Brent settled at $109.86, up $3.94 or 3.7% on the day, Reuters reported. WTI closed at $101.41, its highest since September 17. For the week, Brent gained 4.9% and WTI rose 10.4%.
Prices have swung hard all year. Brent peaked above $120 in late April, then sank below $80 for much of June and July during a shaky US-Iran ceasefire, according to The Hill. The war is now close to eight months old, and oil has moved back above $100.
Read more: Crude Oil Jumps After Trump’s ‘Crushing’ Economic Threat to Iran
Why Oil Prices Stay High Despite the Waiver
The waiver adds a possible source of supply. It does not remove the danger near the Gulf. At least nine tankers and cargo ships were attacked around the Strait of Hormuz between October 11 and October 16, TokenPost reported. Three crew members were hurt and two are missing. The container ship GFS Pride sank while under tow.
Houthi forces also kept firing missiles at Saudi Arabia. A ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu, a key oil export port, was intercepted. Energy Aspects told clients that rumours of attacks on Saudi energy sites sent prices up on Friday. It also cited Israeli reports that Iran may be preparing a pre-emptive strike.
Hormuz matters because of its size. Before the war began in late February, the strait carried about a fifth of global oil and gas flows, Reuters has reported. Daily traffic then averaged 125 to 140 vessels. More than 40 vessels crossed the main channel in the 24 hours to October 16.
Analysts at Kpler said flows through the strait will recover slowly and unevenly without a full political deal. US-Iran talks have not produced one yet.
Russian Diesel Supply Is the Open Question
Diesel is at the centre of this story. Wholesale diesel prices topped $200 a barrel in Singapore and $220 in Europe and the US, The National reported. The International Energy Agency has released more than 20 million barrels to markets. The report adds that diesel stocks may not recover until the second half of 2027.
Russia’s ability to fill the gap is unclear. A Ukrainian drone strike shut a main unit at a large Russian refinery, according to The Nation. Traders doubt how much diesel Moscow can actually ship, even with sanctions waived.
The US is also tapping its own stocks. The Department of Energy said on October 16 that it had asked for proposals to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
One analyst offered a calmer view. Norbert Rucker of Julius Baer said crude flows out of the Middle East have largely recovered. He argued the war has mainly wiped out the surplus built in 2025, rather than pushing the market into shortage.
The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average $105 in the fourth quarter of 2026. That forecast assumes Middle East supply stays constrained through the quarter.
Read more: Trump’s Venezuela Oil Deal: What It Really Means for the U.S.
What the Oil Prices Move Means for India
India imports about 90% of its crude, according to a March report carried by Yahoo News. Russian barrels have become a large share of that supply. Kpler estimates showed India took 2.6 million barrels a day of Russian oil in June, or 53.5% of its crude imports that month, Madhyamam reported.
The politics has shifted more than once. Trump had earlier put an extra 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. India has long said it will not let other countries dictate its trade. The new waiver covers sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act, and the 60-day review leaves the final shape unsettled.
For households, the link is direct. Higher crude raises the import bill. Costly diesel pushes up freight and food prices. A fall in Brent helps only if it lasts, and Monday’s drop is too small to promise that.
What Happens Next
Three things matter in the coming weeks. The 60-day review window began with Friday’s order. US-Iran talks over Hormuz remain stuck. Attacks on shipping continue to hit insurance costs and tanker routes.
Prices will likely follow supply news more than policy headlines. If Russian diesel reaches buyers quickly and Hormuz traffic holds above 40 vessels a day, the pressure on Brent could ease. A new attack on Saudi infrastructure or another ship would push it the other way.
FAQ
Why did oil prices fall on October 19, 2026?
Oil prices fell because Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia. Traders expect that Russian fuel exports could rise, which would add supply. Brent dropped 1.3% to $108.43 in early Asian trade.
What is the Graham Act?
The Graham Act is a law Trump signed last month after lawmakers urged him to pressure Moscow over the Ukraine war. His Friday order waives key sanctions and tariffs under it, Reuters reported.
How long will the waiver last?
The reports do not give a fixed end date. Rubio said Trump would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact of the waiver.
Is Brent crude still near its highest level since May?
Yes. Brent settled at $109.86 on Friday, its highest since May 19, and touched $110 during the session. Monday’s price of about $108 is still close to that peak.
How could this affect fuel prices in India?
India imports most of its crude, and Russian oil supplies more than half of it, per Kpler estimates from June. Lower crude prices could ease costs over time. Attacks near Hormuz and high diesel prices still keep the risk of costlier fuel alive.
